Türkiye Jeoloji Bülteni

A Multiple Mode of Faulting Mechanism Proposed for The North Anatolian Fault and Prediction of Related Earthquakes

Abstract: Investigation of the nature of stress, strain and displacement distributions in the North Anatolian Fault(NAF) zone, has been attempted on an analytical model of tha plates adjacent to the fault, utilizing the finite elementtechniques. Concentrtion of tensile stresses occurs around the eastern end of the fault zone, as a consequence of northwardmovement of the Arabian plate. Initial faulting occurs at this end, in the form, of a tensile fracture, opens and propagatesdiagonally in NE - SW direction along the East Anatolian Fault (EAF). Movements along the EAF, releases the tensilestresses originally developed at the eastern end of the NAF; and thus causes a redistribution of stresses and strains in theNAF zone. This redistribution is responsible for the subsequent ruptures, predominantly in ‘slip’ mode; and associated witha frictional strength criterion. These shear fractures initiate at the eastern end of the NAF and propagate towards west,are described as ‘progressive faulting’. Before these progressive ruptures could reach to the central portion of the fault zone;a third mode of faulting begins, again as shear fractures, at the western end of the NAF and propagates backward along thefault, towards east. This third mode of faulting is described as ‘retrogressive’. So, the proposed faulting mechanism forthe NAF, is a `progressive and retrogressive strike-slip` mechanism.The elastic strain energy accumulated in the fault zone, is largely released by these progressive and retrogressivefaultings in the eastern and western sections; and no important ruptures occur in the central section of the fault to causelarge earth-quakes. Therefore, this central section of the NAF zone, specifically between the longitudes of 33` E and 35 E,may be considered as a ‘seismic gap’. However, there are evidences of continuous creep events in the central section ofthe fault zone indicating a continuous strain energy occumulation in this area. Therefore, the possibility of a largeearthquake to occur in the future in this seismic gap area, should be seriously considered.