Türkiye Jeoloji Bülteni

Geological Criteria for the Forecasting of Epicentral Areas of Large Magnitude Earthquakes

Abstract: According to the observations made on the North Anatolian fault zone where the epicentral areas of1942 Erbaa and 1943 Tosya earthquakes are located, it is defined that the active fault traces change direction in a convergence sense upto 15°. At the same time the above areas qceur in the metamorphic complexes and are also subjectedto local and regional uplifting. The features obtained from these two localities, are applied to the other epicentralareas of past large magnitude earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault zone and it is noticed that these areas have the same features. Here the relationship between the above criteria and large magnitude earthquakes has been discussed, as a result of which 4 new forecasting epicentral areas of large magnitude earthquakes have been put foreward. These are (a) Bandırma district, (b) Palu-Gökdere, (c) Pötürge Karamemikler and (d) Karlıova-Elmalı river.It is recomended that an instrumental network in these areas should be installed to monitor the seismic activity associated to forthcoming large magnitude earthquakes.